WEATHER

Scientists warn that Earth is "off-track" in its efforts to limit global warming to 1.5°C

January, 18, 2025-02:20

Share: Facebook | Twitter | Whatsapp | Linkedin | Visits: 46519 | :2821

---

Scientists warn that Earth is "off-track" in its efforts to limit global warming to 1.5°C

Global warming is escalating at an alarming rate, the Met Office has warned, with Earth veering off-course from the goal of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C (2.7°F), a critical target established by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in the Paris Agreement.

Recent data highlights the urgency of the situation. In 2024, measurements at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, recorded the fastest annual increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) since tracking began in 1958. Additionally, satellite observations revealed a significant global surge in CO2 levels, driven by widespread hot, dry conditions attributed in part to the El Niño weather pattern and exacerbated by ongoing climate change.

The findings come just a week after 2024 was declared the hottest year on record, with global average temperatures exceeding pre-industrial levels by more than 1.5°C for the first time.

Professor Richard Betts, who led the Met Office’s analysis, noted, "Although surpassing the 1.5°C threshold in 2024 does not constitute a failure to meet the Paris Agreement target—since this requires sustained warming over a longer period—the underlying trend is clear. CO2 continues to accumulate in the atmosphere, ensuring that the long-term warming trajectory persists. While 2025 may see slightly cooler conditions, the overall direction remains unchanged."

The study follows the confirmation that 2024 was the hottest year on record, with wildfires in the West Hills of Los Angeles on January 9 serving as a stark reminder of the climate crisis.

Measurements at Mauna Loa showed a CO2 increase of 3.58 parts per million (ppm) in 2024, surpassing the Met Office’s prediction of 2.84ppm (± 0.54ppm). This increase is concerning, as the IPCC’s calculations indicate that to limit global warming to 1.5°C (2.7°F), CO2 emissions need to decrease by 1.8ppm annually.

Despite the worrying trend, there is a glimmer of hope. The CO2 rise between 2024 and 2025 is expected to slow slightly, with a forecasted increase of 2.26 ± 0.56 ppm. This slowdown is attributed to the partial recovery of carbon sinks as the shift from El Niño to La Niña conditions occurs.

However, even with this reduced rate of increase, it remains insufficient to meet the 1.5°C target. Professor Betts explained, "La Niña conditions are expected to enhance carbon absorption by forests and ecosystems, offering a temporary dip in the atmospheric CO2 rise, but the long-term trend remains concerning."